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| Democratic congressional candidate Aftyn Behn came close to George Walker IV / AP |
December 2, 2025 – Republican Matt Van Epps won a special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District on Tuesday, but a surprisingly strong performance by Democrat Aftyn Behn has injected uncertainty into the Republican Party’s outlook for the 2026 midterms.
Van Epps secured 53.9% of the vote to Behn’s 45.1%, a victory margin of just under 9 percentage points. This result is notably narrower than the district’s recent voting history: Donald Trump won the district by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election, and former Representative Mark Green won it by a similar margin.
A District Outperforms Its Partisan Lean
Tennessee’s 7th District is a politically mixed but heavily Republican-leaning area. It includes Democratic-leaning parts of Nashville alongside the affluent, conservative suburbs of Williamson County and more rural counties. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10, it is considered solidly red territory.
Democrats are framing the 13-point swing in their favor as a warning sign for Republicans. The Democratic National Committee stated that Behn “blew away expectations” and that the result shows “Democrats are on offense”.
The 2026 National Landscape: A Warning for the GOP?
The Tennessee result fits a pattern observed in other 2025 off-year elections, where strong Democratic performances in states like Virginia and New Jersey have sparked concerns among Republicans about their strategy for holding the House.
A central Republican strategy has been an aggressive push to redraw congressional maps in key states to create a more favorable landscape for 2026. However, recent Democratic victories and legal successes—like a ballot measure in California that could flip several seats—have led to worry within the GOP that the effort may not yield the expected gains.
Key Factors Influencing 2026:
- The Trump Factor: Recent elections show that President Trump casts a long shadow over down-ballot races. Over 90% of voters who disapprove of Trump have voted for Democrats, making it difficult for Republicans in areas where he is unpopular.
- The Affordability Message: Both Tennessee candidates focused heavily on the cost of living, indicating this issue will dominate the 2026 midterms.
- Hispanic Vote Uncertainty: Strong Democratic showings in Hispanic regions have created doubts about whether Republicans can retain the Hispanic support Trump gained in 2024.
Implications for Key States: Pennsylvania in Focus
The Democratic overperformance in a red district like Tennessee’s suggests that traditionally safe Republican seats could become competitive in a favorable national environment. This has direct implications for key battleground states such as Pennsylvania.
According to The Cook Political Report, multiple Pennsylvania districts are in play:
- PA-07 (Ryan Mackenzie): Republican Toss-Up
- PA-08 (Rob Bresnahan): Lean Republican
- PA-10 (Scott Perry): Republican Toss-Up
If a pro-Democratic national trend emerges in 2026, these already competitive seats could flip—and even “Likely Republican” districts might enter the battlefield.
A Narrow Majority at Stake
Republicans currently hold a slim 220–213 majority in the House. While Van Epps’s win temporarily widens that margin, an upcoming GOP resignation will shrink it again. This fragile control means Democrats need only a small net gain in 2026 to flip the House.
The closer-than-expected Tennessee result in a deeply Republican district provides both parties with important signals: Democrats see momentum and a favorable environment, while Republicans face the reality of defending a thin majority amid strong anti-Trump sentiment.
The political climate may still shift before November 2026, but for now, Tennessee’s special election serves as a clear warning for the GOP.