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| Republican candidate Matt Van Epps speaks to supporters at a watch party after announcing victory in a special election for the U.S. seventh congressional district in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 2, 2025. |
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Republicans narrowly avoided an embarrassing defeat in a solidly red Tennessee congressional district Tuesday night, but the single-digit victory margin is sending shockwaves through the party and signaling Democratic momentum just 11 months before the crucial 2026 midterm elections.
Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by about nine points with nearly all votes counted. The surprisingly close result in a district former President Donald Trump won by 22 points just a year ago marks another troubling sign for Republicans in the post-2024 political landscape.
A Safe Seat No More: Tennessee’s Warning Sign
The special election, triggered by the resignation of former GOP Rep. Mark Green, was expected to be a routine Republican hold. Instead, it delivered a stark warning.
- Historic Shift: Van Epps’s narrow ~9-point win represents a dramatic 13-point swing toward Democrats compared to 2024. It is the best Democratic performance in TN-07 this century.
- Overperformance Trend: The race continues the pattern seen in every 2025 U.S. House special election, with Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential numbers by double digits.
A National Pattern of Democratic Gains
This Tennessee race is not an isolated incident. It fits into a broader national trend of Democratic strength in statewide and local elections where Trump is not on the ballot.
Key Democratic Victories in 2025:
- Virginia: Abigail Spanberger (D) won the governorship decisively.
- New Jersey: Mikie Sherrill (D) secured a commanding win for governor.
- New York City: Zohran Mamdani (D) was elected mayor, boosted by record youth turnout.
- California: Voters approved Proposition 50, reshaping redistricting in ways expected to create more Democratic-leaning districts.
The Looming 2026 Midterm Equation
Analysts say these results carry major implications for the 2026 midterm elections, where Republicans defend a slim House majority and Democrats face a brutal Senate map.
- The Historical Headwind: The party controlling the White House usually loses midterm seats. With President Trump’s approval stuck in the high 30s to low 40s, GOP House seats face added vulnerability.
- GOP Response: Republican leaders have downplayed the warnings, with an internal RNC memo claiming the elections were “not a referendum” on Trump.
- Democratic Strategy & Challenges: Democrats have thrived by focusing on affordability and economic issues, but must defend tough Senate seats in states like West Virginia and Montana.
Conclusion: A Scary Picture, But Not a Foregone Conclusion
Republicans may have held onto Tennessee’s 7th District, but the shrinking margins in deep-red territory paint what one senior GOP strategist privately called a “scary electoral picture.”
Momentum is currently with Democrats, turning safe GOP districts into competitive battlegrounds. While much can change before November 2026, the results from Tennessee and other 2025 races serve as a clear warning to Republicans: without a course correction, they may face a painful reckoning next year.