Today, a confusing and contradictory picture of the Ukraine peace process came to light. A high-ranking US official said that an agreement is almost done, but both Ukrainian and Russian leaders quickly shot down the idea that a breakthrough was coming soon.
The conflicting signals highlight the delicate and high-stakes negotiations happening on multiple fronts as the war grinds on.
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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a video address to the nation in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Friday. |
The US Claim: "Minor Details" Remain
An unnamed U.S. official said that Ukraine had agreed to a U.S. plan to end the war with Russia, which started the wave of hope. This official says that the framework is mostly agreed upon, with only a few "minor details" that need to be worked out.
The official said that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is currently in Abu Dhabi meeting with Russian officials to talk about the proposed plan. This adds to the feeling of progress. In addition, Ukraine's national security chief hinted that President Volodymyr Zelensky's trip to the U.S. later this month was being planned to "complete final steps," which means a deal could be signed soon.
Kyiv's Reality Check: "Much Work" Ahead
But the message from Kyiv was very different. President Volodymyr Zelensky responded directly to the reports by saying that "much work" still needs to be done before any agreement can be reached, even though diplomatic efforts are still going on. His comments are a clear response to the U.S. official's claim that a deal is just a few details away.
From Ukraine's point of view, this means that there are still major issues that need to be worked out and that the path to peace is not as clear-cut as it may have seemed from Washington.
Moscow's Warning: Don't Stray from the "Understanding"
Russia made things even worse by giving its own stern warning. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, said that Moscow could turn down a revised U.S. peace plan if it doesn't match what was agreed upon during the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska.
Lavrov's words suggest that Russia thinks a basic agreement was reached in earlier, high-level talks. If the U.S. tries to change those terms too much now, it would be a deal-breaker.
The Bottom Line
The day's events highlight a glaring contradiction in the major players' public narratives:
- Perhaps in an effort to make a deal seem inevitable, the United States seems to be projecting confidence and momentum.
- In order to avoid being perceived as being forced into an early or unfavorable agreement, Ukraine is carefully controlling expectations.
- Russia is reminding everyone that any final agreement must be in line with its fundamental demands by restating its own red lines.